Since I haven't posted it yet, I thought it might be appropriate to post my process for deciding which teams will probably make it into the NCAA tournament. Of course, there is always ehuman bias in the Selection Committee, so no list can ever be perfect. However, this list has worked extremely well for me, and got 62/64 teams right last year.
1. RPI
2. SOS
3. Top 50/100 RPI wins
4. Momemtum
5. Conference tournament performance
These guidelines generally give a very accurate picture of who is going to get in, and hopefully the results will continue to be good.
Thursday, April 28, 2011
Monday, April 18, 2011
The effect of parody on college basketball
As I wrote about earlier, college basketball's decision to make all players wanted to play in the NBA spend a year in college has truly created a lot of parody in the game. However, many might be skeptical of this and think of this as a short term trend. To prove my point, take a look at the final four seeds of the last 33 tournaments:
2011 3, 4, 8, 11 UConn, Kentucky, Butler, VCU
2010 1, 2, 5, 5 Duke, West Virginia, Butler, Michigan State
2009 1, 1, 2, 3 North Carolina, Connecticut, Michigan State, Villanova
2008 1, 1, 1, 1 Kansas, Memphis, North Carolina, UCLA
2007 1, 1, 2, 2 Florida, Ohio State, Georgetown, UCLA
2006 2, 3, 4, 11 UCLA, Florida, LSU, George Mason
2005 1, 1, 4, 5 North Carolina, Illinois, Louisville, Michigan State
2004 1, 2, 2, 3 Duke, Connecticut, Oklahoma State, Georgia Tech
2003 1, 2, 3, 3 Texas, Kansas, Marquette, Syracuse
2002 1, 1, 2, 5 Maryland, Kansas, Oklahoma, Indiana
2001 1, 1, 2, 3 Duke, Michigan State, Arizona, Maryland
2000 1, 5, 8, 8 Michigan State, Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin
1999 1, 1, 1, 4 Connecticut, Duke, Michigan State, Ohio State
1998 1, 2, 3, 3 North Carolina, Kentucky, Stanford, Utah
1997 1, 1, 1, 4 Kentucky, Minnesota, North Carolina, Arizona
1996 1, 1, 4, 5 Kentucky, Massachusetts, Syracuse, Mississippi State
1995 1, 2, 2, 4 UCLA, Arkansas, North Carolina, Oklahoma State
1994 1, 2, 2, 3 Arkansas, Arizona, Duke, Florida
1993 1, 1, 1, 2 North Carolina, Kentucky, Michigan, Kansas
1992 1, 2, 4, 6 Duke, Indiana, Cincinnati, Michigan
1991 1, 1, 2, 3 UNLV, North Carolin, Duke, Kansas
1990 1, 3, 4, 4 UNLV, Duke, Georgia Tech, Arkansas
1989 1, 2, 3, 3 Illinois, Duke, Seton Hall, Michigan
1988 1, 1, 2, 6 Arizona, Oklahoma, Duke, Kansas
1987 1, 1, 2, 6 UNLV, Indiana, Syracuse, Providence
1986 1, 1, 2, 11 Duke, Kansas, Louisville, LSU
1985 1, 1, 2, 8 St. John's, Georgetown, Memphis, Villanova
1984 1, 1, 2, 7 Kentucky, Georgetown, Houston, Virginia
1983 1, 1, 4, 6 Houston, Louisville, Georgia, N.C. State
1982 1, 1, 3, 6 North Carolina, Georgetown, Louisville, Houston
1981 1, 1, 2, 3 Virginia, LSU, North Carolina, Indiana
1980 2, 5, 6, 8 Louisville, Iowa, Purdue, UCLA
1979 1, 2, 2, 9 Indiana State, Michigan State, DePaul, Pennsylvania
As you can see, the 2011 tournament especially was one for the record books, as there was never been a tournament even closely as upset-prone as this past one. Consider that in the 22-year span from 1981 until 2002, there was an average of 2 #1 seeds in the final four each tournament. However, in the 9 tournaments since then the average has been near 1, which is unprecedented in tournament history. To some basketball outsiders, this might not seem like a big deal, but it is actually an extremely important statistic that reflects a growing trend of parody.
In addition, parody leads the way for mid-major schools to pull shockng upsets much more often. Consider Butler, who has been to the championship game twice in a row, even though the odds on that happening were one in millions. In addition, 11 seed VCU was in the final four this year, after almost missing the tournament. This rise of mid-major upsets also proves that the parody is increasing, and makes the gap between seeds smaller and smaller each year.
2011 3, 4, 8, 11 UConn, Kentucky, Butler, VCU
2010 1, 2, 5, 5 Duke, West Virginia, Butler, Michigan State
2009 1, 1, 2, 3 North Carolina, Connecticut, Michigan State, Villanova
2008 1, 1, 1, 1 Kansas, Memphis, North Carolina, UCLA
2007 1, 1, 2, 2 Florida, Ohio State, Georgetown, UCLA
2006 2, 3, 4, 11 UCLA, Florida, LSU, George Mason
2005 1, 1, 4, 5 North Carolina, Illinois, Louisville, Michigan State
2004 1, 2, 2, 3 Duke, Connecticut, Oklahoma State, Georgia Tech
2003 1, 2, 3, 3 Texas, Kansas, Marquette, Syracuse
2002 1, 1, 2, 5 Maryland, Kansas, Oklahoma, Indiana
2001 1, 1, 2, 3 Duke, Michigan State, Arizona, Maryland
2000 1, 5, 8, 8 Michigan State, Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin
1999 1, 1, 1, 4 Connecticut, Duke, Michigan State, Ohio State
1998 1, 2, 3, 3 North Carolina, Kentucky, Stanford, Utah
1997 1, 1, 1, 4 Kentucky, Minnesota, North Carolina, Arizona
1996 1, 1, 4, 5 Kentucky, Massachusetts, Syracuse, Mississippi State
1995 1, 2, 2, 4 UCLA, Arkansas, North Carolina, Oklahoma State
1994 1, 2, 2, 3 Arkansas, Arizona, Duke, Florida
1993 1, 1, 1, 2 North Carolina, Kentucky, Michigan, Kansas
1992 1, 2, 4, 6 Duke, Indiana, Cincinnati, Michigan
1991 1, 1, 2, 3 UNLV, North Carolin, Duke, Kansas
1990 1, 3, 4, 4 UNLV, Duke, Georgia Tech, Arkansas
1989 1, 2, 3, 3 Illinois, Duke, Seton Hall, Michigan
1988 1, 1, 2, 6 Arizona, Oklahoma, Duke, Kansas
1987 1, 1, 2, 6 UNLV, Indiana, Syracuse, Providence
1986 1, 1, 2, 11 Duke, Kansas, Louisville, LSU
1985 1, 1, 2, 8 St. John's, Georgetown, Memphis, Villanova
1984 1, 1, 2, 7 Kentucky, Georgetown, Houston, Virginia
1983 1, 1, 4, 6 Houston, Louisville, Georgia, N.C. State
1982 1, 1, 3, 6 North Carolina, Georgetown, Louisville, Houston
1981 1, 1, 2, 3 Virginia, LSU, North Carolina, Indiana
1980 2, 5, 6, 8 Louisville, Iowa, Purdue, UCLA
1979 1, 2, 2, 9 Indiana State, Michigan State, DePaul, Pennsylvania
As you can see, the 2011 tournament especially was one for the record books, as there was never been a tournament even closely as upset-prone as this past one. Consider that in the 22-year span from 1981 until 2002, there was an average of 2 #1 seeds in the final four each tournament. However, in the 9 tournaments since then the average has been near 1, which is unprecedented in tournament history. To some basketball outsiders, this might not seem like a big deal, but it is actually an extremely important statistic that reflects a growing trend of parody.
In addition, parody leads the way for mid-major schools to pull shockng upsets much more often. Consider Butler, who has been to the championship game twice in a row, even though the odds on that happening were one in millions. In addition, 11 seed VCU was in the final four this year, after almost missing the tournament. This rise of mid-major upsets also proves that the parody is increasing, and makes the gap between seeds smaller and smaller each year.
Friday, April 15, 2011
Beauty and the Beast: The controversial topic of players leaving early from college
10 years ago, NCAA basketball fans never got to witness stars like LeBron James and Kobe Bryant, as these highly recruited high school seniors were being drafted striaght into the NBA. Since then, there has been a rule implemented to require American players to play at least one year in college before continuing on to the Assosciation. This rule has been hotly debated since its inception, and there is still a trend today to change it.
The beauty of the rule is that us fans no longer miss out on future hall-of-famers like Kobe and LeBron. The main point is that colleges make tons of revenue on these stars, and that makes the presidents and ADs very happy. In addition, many players grow up a lot and become more mature during their time in college, and get used to playing with higher calliber athletes. One major side effect of this rule has been the incredibly quick transition times programs now experience between being a high tournament seed and having a losing season. Superstar 4-year players like Tyler Hansborough are now relatively rare, and almost every highly-touted high school senior now becomes a one-and-done, meaning they flee to the NBA after their freshman year in college.
So why does this matter? Many would, in fact, say that it only gives a few marquee colleges a couple of nice players every decade. The point is that now, unlike any other time in history, the game is changing so rapidly that parody has ensued. Back before the rule, the best of the best skipped the NCAA and didn't give a program one great year, only the leave afterwards. But the great players that did go to college actually valueda 4-year degree, and usually stayed through their senior year. This system worked extremely well, and founded many fundamental NCAA concepts. For example, the best programs always stayed elite, since all they had to do was recruit a few players every 4 years. This feauture led to the rise of great upsets in the tournament, and made it special to watch a big, traditional powerhouse go down early.
But now, it really doesn't matter that much. In this year's tournament, the regional semifinals consisted of a 1,10,11,and 12 seed. Sure, this was surprising, but there lacked an intrigue and an aura of epicness that previous tournaments would have contained. Butler as an 8 seed was in the finals; but people wont look back 25 years from now and remember the run like they do Villanova's magical 8 seed run the the championship in 1985. The parody has simply killed the surprise value of such great upsets these days, and while March Madness is still entertaining, it continues to lose much of its luster.
So, a solution to this problem? Either add a year to the rule of eliminate it all together. In the NBA and NCAA are so enamored with making these young men go to college for at least a year, then why not make it 2? At least the fans can see more entertainment, and the parody in college basketball will definitely decrease. However, until the rule is changed, March Madness will continue to go downhill.
The beauty of the rule is that us fans no longer miss out on future hall-of-famers like Kobe and LeBron. The main point is that colleges make tons of revenue on these stars, and that makes the presidents and ADs very happy. In addition, many players grow up a lot and become more mature during their time in college, and get used to playing with higher calliber athletes. One major side effect of this rule has been the incredibly quick transition times programs now experience between being a high tournament seed and having a losing season. Superstar 4-year players like Tyler Hansborough are now relatively rare, and almost every highly-touted high school senior now becomes a one-and-done, meaning they flee to the NBA after their freshman year in college.
So why does this matter? Many would, in fact, say that it only gives a few marquee colleges a couple of nice players every decade. The point is that now, unlike any other time in history, the game is changing so rapidly that parody has ensued. Back before the rule, the best of the best skipped the NCAA and didn't give a program one great year, only the leave afterwards. But the great players that did go to college actually valueda 4-year degree, and usually stayed through their senior year. This system worked extremely well, and founded many fundamental NCAA concepts. For example, the best programs always stayed elite, since all they had to do was recruit a few players every 4 years. This feauture led to the rise of great upsets in the tournament, and made it special to watch a big, traditional powerhouse go down early.
But now, it really doesn't matter that much. In this year's tournament, the regional semifinals consisted of a 1,10,11,and 12 seed. Sure, this was surprising, but there lacked an intrigue and an aura of epicness that previous tournaments would have contained. Butler as an 8 seed was in the finals; but people wont look back 25 years from now and remember the run like they do Villanova's magical 8 seed run the the championship in 1985. The parody has simply killed the surprise value of such great upsets these days, and while March Madness is still entertaining, it continues to lose much of its luster.
So, a solution to this problem? Either add a year to the rule of eliminate it all together. In the NBA and NCAA are so enamored with making these young men go to college for at least a year, then why not make it 2? At least the fans can see more entertainment, and the parody in college basketball will definitely decrease. However, until the rule is changed, March Madness will continue to go downhill.
Wednesday, April 13, 2011
San Diego basketball scandal and the cleanliness of the NCAA game
By now, many of you have probably heard of the recent scandal and San Diego University. The FBI just busted several players earlier this week for being involved in a point shaving scandal. The worst part of this is that one of the players involed was the school's all-time leader scorer, Brandon Johnson, who was a senior during the 09-10 school year. Johnson, along with former and current teammates and an assistant coach, all face up to a $250,000 fine and/or up to 5 years in jail. It is also important to note that San Diego is not to be confused with San Diego State, a 2 seed in this last tournament. However, as recently as 2007 they shocked Uconn in the first round, so San Diego State has indeed has recent prominence.
While the scandal was occuring, there was also an illegal drug investigation going on. In fact, the FBI was alreayd investigating the program for drug use when the point shaving started 2 in the winter of 2009-2010, so the investigation was fairly. However, this scandal has left the program in ruins and has tarnished the reputation of San Diego for years to come.
As Stephen Levitt point out in his wonderful book, Freakonomics, cheating to lose a game is the worst kind of cheating, and often draws the most ire from fans. This scandal is no exception, and many fans and officials are furious. The team shaved as many as 10 points off games, and many games were fixed. If there is a birghtside, however, it lies in the shock of this event occuring in this era. These scandals almost never happen in college basketball, and the fact that even a small school like San Digeo was caught so quickly shows how good our game's security has become. Rare scandals like this are always quickly busted, and as fans we can assure that we are witnessing a clean game every night.
While the scandal was occuring, there was also an illegal drug investigation going on. In fact, the FBI was alreayd investigating the program for drug use when the point shaving started 2 in the winter of 2009-2010, so the investigation was fairly. However, this scandal has left the program in ruins and has tarnished the reputation of San Diego for years to come.
As Stephen Levitt point out in his wonderful book, Freakonomics, cheating to lose a game is the worst kind of cheating, and often draws the most ire from fans. This scandal is no exception, and many fans and officials are furious. The team shaved as many as 10 points off games, and many games were fixed. If there is a birghtside, however, it lies in the shock of this event occuring in this era. These scandals almost never happen in college basketball, and the fact that even a small school like San Digeo was caught so quickly shows how good our game's security has become. Rare scandals like this are always quickly busted, and as fans we can assure that we are witnessing a clean game every night.
Monday, April 4, 2011
Championship game blog wrapup
Unfortunately for all us fans, Butler absloutely flamed out in the 2nd half, shooting a dismal 16%. The game was a huge letdown, especially after the break. However, congrats to the Huskies for their unbelievable run, and pprops also go to Butler for another improbable appearance. This tournament will always be remembered as one of the craziest tournaments ever, and maybe next year's will be a bit more normal. For now, so long!
Championship game blog, part IV
Somehow, Butler is currently 7-41 from 3 and only trails Uconn by 3. This includes an abismal 1/19 on 2-point shots. Currently, Uconn's Jeremy Lamb and Butler's Chase Stigall seem to be the only 2 players who are capable of any shots. Uconn's foul trouble problems have diminished, and they have the momentum, so give Uconn a slight edge at this point. However, there are still 12 minutes left.
Championship game blog, part III
If you like defensive basketball as I do, this is an absolutely fnatastic game. At the half, Butler goes in with a 22-19 lead as Shelvin Mack hits a trey at the horn. Both teams are playing absolutely divine defense, and the rebounding battle has been fierce on both ends. Uconn's foul trouble has continued, with Roscoe Smith, among others, having joined Oriakhi in the 2-foul club. As I predicted, this game with almost certainly go down do the wire, where I expect a last second shot or overtime to decide the trophy. Let the flashbacks to last year begin.
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