Top things the Selection committee looks for when selecting teams

Since I haven't posted it yet, I thought it might be appropriate to post my process for deciding which teams will probably make it into the NCAA tournament. Of course, there is always ehuman bias in the Selection Committee, so no list can ever be perfect. However, this list has worked extremely well for me, and got 62/64 teams right last year.

1. RPI
2. SOS
3. Top 50/100 RPI wins
4. Momemtum
5. Conference tournament performance

These guidelines generally give a very accurate picture of who is going to get in, and hopefully the results will continue to be good.

The effect of parody on college basketball

As I wrote about earlier, college basketball's decision to make all players wanted to play in the NBA spend a year in college has truly created a lot of parody in the game. However, many might be skeptical of this and think of this as a short term trend. To prove my point, take a look at the final four seeds of the last 33 tournaments:
2011 3, 4, 8, 11 UConn, Kentucky, Butler, VCU
2010 1, 2, 5, 5 Duke, West Virginia, Butler, Michigan State
2009 1, 1, 2, 3 North Carolina, Connecticut, Michigan State, Villanova
2008 1, 1, 1, 1 Kansas, Memphis, North Carolina, UCLA
2007 1, 1, 2, 2 Florida, Ohio State, Georgetown, UCLA
2006 2, 3, 4, 11 UCLA, Florida, LSU, George Mason
2005 1, 1, 4, 5 North Carolina, Illinois, Louisville, Michigan State
2004 1, 2, 2, 3 Duke, Connecticut, Oklahoma State, Georgia Tech
2003 1, 2, 3, 3 Texas, Kansas, Marquette, Syracuse
2002 1, 1, 2, 5 Maryland, Kansas, Oklahoma, Indiana
2001 1, 1, 2, 3 Duke, Michigan State, Arizona, Maryland
2000 1, 5, 8, 8 Michigan State, Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin
1999 1, 1, 1, 4 Connecticut, Duke, Michigan State, Ohio State
1998 1, 2, 3, 3 North Carolina, Kentucky, Stanford, Utah
1997 1, 1, 1, 4 Kentucky, Minnesota, North Carolina, Arizona
1996 1, 1, 4, 5 Kentucky, Massachusetts, Syracuse, Mississippi State
1995 1, 2, 2, 4 UCLA, Arkansas, North Carolina, Oklahoma State
1994 1, 2, 2, 3 Arkansas, Arizona, Duke, Florida
1993 1, 1, 1, 2 North Carolina, Kentucky, Michigan, Kansas
1992 1, 2, 4, 6 Duke, Indiana, Cincinnati, Michigan
1991 1, 1, 2, 3 UNLV, North Carolin, Duke, Kansas
1990 1, 3, 4, 4 UNLV, Duke, Georgia Tech, Arkansas
1989 1, 2, 3, 3 Illinois, Duke, Seton Hall, Michigan
1988 1, 1, 2, 6 Arizona, Oklahoma, Duke, Kansas
1987 1, 1, 2, 6 UNLV, Indiana, Syracuse, Providence
1986 1, 1, 2, 11 Duke, Kansas, Louisville, LSU
1985 1, 1, 2, 8 St. John's, Georgetown, Memphis, Villanova
1984 1, 1, 2, 7 Kentucky, Georgetown, Houston, Virginia
1983 1, 1, 4, 6 Houston, Louisville, Georgia, N.C. State
1982 1, 1, 3, 6 North Carolina, Georgetown, Louisville, Houston
1981 1, 1, 2, 3 Virginia, LSU, North Carolina, Indiana
1980 2, 5, 6, 8 Louisville, Iowa, Purdue, UCLA
1979 1, 2, 2, 9 Indiana State, Michigan State, DePaul, Pennsylvania

As you can see, the 2011 tournament especially was one for the record books, as there was never been a tournament even closely as upset-prone as this past one. Consider that in the 22-year span from 1981 until 2002, there was an average of 2 #1 seeds in the final four each tournament. However, in the 9 tournaments since then the average has been near 1, which is unprecedented in tournament history. To some basketball outsiders, this might not seem like a big deal, but it is actually an extremely important statistic that reflects a growing trend of parody.

In addition, parody leads the way for mid-major schools to pull shockng upsets much more often. Consider Butler, who has been to the championship game twice in a row, even though the odds on that happening were one in millions. In addition, 11 seed VCU was in the final four this year, after almost missing the tournament. This rise of mid-major upsets also proves that the parody is increasing, and makes the gap between seeds smaller and smaller each year.

Beauty and the Beast: The controversial topic of players leaving early from college

10 years ago, NCAA basketball fans never got to witness stars like LeBron James and Kobe Bryant, as these highly recruited high school seniors were being drafted striaght into the NBA. Since then, there has been a rule implemented to require American players to play at least one year in college before continuing on to the Assosciation. This rule has been hotly debated since its inception, and there is still a trend today to change it.

The beauty of the rule is that us fans no longer miss out on future hall-of-famers like Kobe and LeBron. The main point is that colleges make tons of revenue on these stars, and that makes the presidents and ADs very happy. In addition, many players grow up a lot and become more mature during their time in college, and get used to playing with higher calliber athletes. One major side effect of this rule has been the incredibly quick transition times programs now experience between being a high tournament seed and having a losing season. Superstar 4-year players like Tyler Hansborough are now relatively rare, and almost every highly-touted high school senior now becomes a one-and-done, meaning they flee to the NBA after their freshman year in college.

So why does this matter? Many would, in fact, say that it only gives a few marquee colleges a couple of nice players every decade. The point is that now, unlike any other time in history, the game is changing so rapidly that parody has ensued. Back before the rule, the best of the best skipped the NCAA and didn't give a program one great year, only the leave afterwards. But the great players that did go to college actually valueda 4-year degree, and usually stayed through their senior year. This system worked extremely well, and founded many fundamental NCAA concepts. For example, the best programs always stayed elite, since all they had to do was recruit a few players every 4 years. This feauture led to the rise of great upsets in the tournament, and made it special to watch a big, traditional powerhouse go down early.

But now, it really doesn't matter that much. In this year's tournament, the regional semifinals consisted of a 1,10,11,and 12 seed. Sure, this was surprising, but there lacked an intrigue and an aura of epicness that previous tournaments would have contained. Butler as an 8 seed was in the finals; but people wont look back 25 years from now and remember the run like they do Villanova's magical 8 seed run the the championship in 1985. The parody has simply killed the surprise value of such great upsets these days, and while March Madness is still entertaining, it continues to lose much of its luster.

So, a solution to this problem? Either add a year to the rule of eliminate it all together. In the NBA and NCAA are so enamored with making these young men go to college for at least a year, then why not make it 2? At least the fans can see more entertainment, and the parody in college basketball will definitely decrease. However, until the rule is changed, March Madness will continue to go downhill.

San Diego basketball scandal and the cleanliness of the NCAA game

By now, many of you have probably heard of the recent scandal and San Diego University. The FBI just busted several players earlier this week for being involved in a point shaving scandal. The worst part of this is that one of the players involed was the school's all-time leader scorer, Brandon Johnson, who was a senior during the 09-10 school year. Johnson, along with former and current teammates and an assistant coach, all face up to a $250,000 fine and/or up to 5 years in jail. It is also important to note that San Diego is not to be confused with San Diego State, a 2 seed in this last tournament. However, as recently as 2007 they shocked Uconn in the first round, so San Diego State has indeed has recent prominence.

While the scandal was occuring, there was also an illegal drug investigation going on. In fact, the FBI was alreayd investigating the program for drug use when the point shaving started 2 in the winter of 2009-2010, so the investigation was fairly. However, this scandal has left the program in ruins and has tarnished the reputation of San Diego for years to come.

As Stephen Levitt point out in his wonderful book, Freakonomics, cheating to lose a game is the worst kind of cheating, and often draws the most ire from fans. This scandal is no exception, and many fans and officials are furious. The team shaved as many as 10 points off games, and many games were fixed. If there is a birghtside, however, it lies in the shock of this event occuring in this era. These scandals almost never happen in college basketball, and the fact that even a small school like San Digeo was caught so quickly shows how good our game's security has become. Rare scandals like this are always quickly busted, and as fans we can assure that we are witnessing a clean game every night.

Championship game blog wrapup

Unfortunately for all us fans, Butler absloutely flamed out in the 2nd half, shooting a dismal 16%. The game was a huge letdown, especially after the break. However, congrats to the Huskies for their unbelievable run, and pprops also go to Butler for another improbable appearance. This tournament will always be remembered as one of the craziest tournaments ever, and maybe next year's will be a bit more normal. For now, so long!

Championship game blog, part IV

Somehow, Butler is currently 7-41 from 3 and only trails Uconn by 3. This includes an abismal 1/19 on 2-point shots. Currently, Uconn's Jeremy Lamb and Butler's Chase Stigall seem to be the only 2 players who are capable of any shots. Uconn's foul trouble problems have diminished, and they have the momentum, so give Uconn a slight edge at this point. However, there are still 12 minutes left.

Championship game blog, part III

If you like defensive basketball as I do, this is an absolutely fnatastic game. At the half, Butler goes in with a 22-19 lead as Shelvin Mack hits a trey at the horn. Both teams are playing absolutely divine defense, and the rebounding battle has been fierce on both ends. Uconn's foul trouble has continued, with Roscoe Smith, among others, having joined Oriakhi in the 2-foul club. As I predicted, this game with almost certainly go down do the wire, where I expect a last second shot or overtime to decide the trophy. Let the flashbacks to last year begin.

Championship game blog. continued

Midway through the first half, the game remains even, with both teams locked in an up-and-down battle. So far, the game has produced several storylines. One of them is Uconn's foul trouble, and they have already commited 8 as a team, with Oriakhi having 2 as a starter. In addition, the shooting has been poor to start the game, with the tams a combined 11/43 so far shooting field goals. Should be an exciting end to the first half.

Championship game blog

Hi everyone,
I will be blogging live during the game tonight with my thoughts. Should be a great game, with Butler coming in as a huge Cinderella for the second year in a row.

Blogging the bracket, part IV

Kemba Walker is a man.

In other news, UC sucks.

In other news, I have a 10-page paper due tomorrow and this is my chosen method of procrastination.

Let's go.

Winners:

Kemba Walker

That man eats his Wheaties.

Notre Dame

Looked more like a one seed, might have surpassed Pitt.

Georgia, Boston College, USC, Michigan State

All avoided deadly losses.

Colorado

Huge win over K State

Losers

UAB, Colorado, Oklahoma State

Bye bye.

UC

'Nuff said

The announcer at the Uconn-Pitt game

For sounding like he said "Cardigan Kemba" at the buzzer.

I'm not gonna move Pitt down to the 2 line (for now) because Kemba Walker is not a human. But I am swtiching them and ND, so if Duke plays well, they might oust Pitt. No auto bids are handed out tonight, but I dropped UAB.



Current bubble softness, with 1 being very hard and 100 being very soft: 100.

It's as soft as it's ever gonna get, since nobody wants to get in, apparently..



*My blog: http://andrewwicksbracketblog.blogspot.com/2011/03/updating-bracket.html





1 seeds: OSU, Kansas, Notre Dame, Pitt

2 seeds: Purdue, SDST, Syracuse, Duke

3 seeds: UNC, Texas, Uconn, Florida

4 seeds: L'ville, Wisconsin, BYU, UK

5 seeds: Vandy, St Johns, West Virginia, Arizona

6 seeds: UNLV, Texas A&M, Xavier, Gtown

7 seeds: K State, Temple, George Mason, #Old Dominion

8 seeds: Tennessee, Florida St., UCLA, Mizzou

9 seeds: Illinois, Utah State, #Gonzaga, UC

10 seeds: Michigan St., Marquette, Georgia, Richmond

11 seeds: *''Nova, *St. Mary's, Boston College, Michigan, Colorado

12 seeds: Clemson, Va. Tech, *'Bama, #Butler, *Memphis

13 seeds: #Belmont, #Wofford,# Oakland, Harvard

14 seeds: Boston U., Kent State, #Long Island, #Morehead State

15 seeds: Bucknell, #Arkansas-Little Rock, Long Beach, McNeese State

16 seeds: *Bethune-Cookman, *#UNC-Ashville, Texas Southern, Northern Colorado, *#Indiana State, *#St. Peters



*= Play-in game #=Auto bid



First four out: Washington, Missouri State, Cleveland State, Washington State



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Blogging the bracket, part III

A few notes:

Switched a few auto bids, and adjusted Big East teams based on performances.

Added Memphis, deleted UW-Milwaukee.



DIDNT MOVE PURDUE. (Your welcome, Leneveu.)



Well, the bubble gods are being nice to quite a few teams this year. Through the first week of conference tournaments, we have exactly 0 bid stealers, and a number of bubble teams have either won their conference tournaments or fallen off the bubble. A recap of a few teams over the last 24 hours:

Baylor- lost badly to Oklahoma. They are out.

Nebraska- Lost to Okie st. They are also out

Okie St.- Beat Nebraska, back of the bubble

Butler- Won Horizon champ, off bubble

UW-Milwaukee- lost to Butler, off bubble

Conclusion: a lot of bubble teams are breathing easier tonight.



Current bubble softness, with 1 being very hard and 100 being very soft: 95.



In a normal year, teams with a profile as crappy as say, Alabama's would never dream of making it. But this year is different, and they have a real shot.



*My blog: http://andrewwicksbracketblog.blogspot.com/2011/03/updating-bracket.html



Spent a few hours doing this tonight, it's a lot of work. Feel free to call me a retard if any one of these is stupidly high/low/non-existent.



1 seeds: OSU, Kansas, Pitt, Notre Dame

2 seeds: Purdue, SDST, UNC, Duke

3 seeds: Syracuse, Texas, BYU, Florida

4 seeds: L'ville, Wisconsin, Uconn, UK

5 seeds: Vandy, St Johns, West Virginia, Arizona

6 seeds: UNLV, Texas A&M, Xavier, Gtown

7 seeds: K State, Temple, Cincy, #Old Dominion

8 seeds: George Mason, Florida St., UCLA, Mizzou

9 seeds: Illinois, Utah State, #Gonzaga, Tennessee

10 seeds: Michigan St., Marquette, Georgia, Richmond

11 seeds: *''Nova, *St. Mary's, Boston College, Michigan, Colorado

12 seeds: UAB, Va. Tech, *'Bama, #Butler, *Memphis

13 seeds: #Belmont, #Wofford,# Oakland, Harvard

14 seeds: Boston U., Kent State, #Long Island, #Morehead State

15 seeds: Bucknell, #Arkansas-Little Rock, Long Beach, McNeese State

16 seeds: *Bethune-Cookman, *#UNC-Ashville, Texas Southern, Northern Colorado, *#Indiana State, *#St. Peters



*= Play-in game #=Auto bid



First four out: Washington, Clemson

Next out: Missouri State, Cleveland State, Washington State

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Blogging the bracket, part II

With the conference tournaments now in full swing, the changes are occuring extremely rapidly, oftentimes by the hour. Nova's loss to USF drops them a few seeds, while I switched ND and Duke due to the fact that Duke almost always gets to play in the State of North Carolina. I also changed a few of the confernece tournaments champinos, which has created some shuffling in the 13-16 range. VCU is out of this bracket after their loss to ODU last night, who moves up 1 seed line. The Butler/UW-Milwaukee game tonight will likely change the bracket as well. I'll try to put an S-curve up by the end of tomorrow.
Current bubble softness, with 1 being very hard and 100 being very soft: 90.
In a normal year, teams with a profile as crappy as say, Alabama's would never dream of making it. But this year is different, and they have a real shot.
*My blog: http://andrewwicksbracketblog.blogspot.com/2011/03/updating-bracket.html

Spent a few hours doing this tonight, it's a lot of work. Feel free to call me a retard if any one of these is stupidly high/low/non-existent.

1 seeds: OSU, Kansas, Pitt, Notre Dame
2 seeds: Purdue, SDST, UNC, Duke
3 seeds: Syracuase, Texas, BYU, Florida
4 seeds: St Johns, L'ville, Wisconsin, Uconn
5 seeds: Vandy, UK, Gtown, Arizona
6 seeds: UNLV, Texas A&M, Xavier, West Virginia
7 seeds: K State, Temple, Cincy, Old Dominion
8 seeds: George Mason, Florida St., UCLA, Mizzou
9 seeds: Illinois, Utah State, Gonzaga, Tennessee
10 seeds: Michigan St., Marquette, Georgia, Richmond
11 seeds: *''Nova, *St. Mary's, Boston College, Michigan, Colorado
12 seeds: UAB, Harvard, *Va. Tech, *'Bama, Butler
13 seeds: Belmont, Wofford, Oakland, UW-Milwaukee
14 seeds: Vermont, Kent State, Long Island, Morehead State
15 seeds: Bucknell, North Texas, Long Beach, McNeese State
16 seeds: *Bethune-Cookman, *UNC-Ashville, Texas Southern, Northern Colorado, *Indiana State, *St. Peters

*= Play-in game

First four out: Memphis, Washington, Colorado State, Clemson
Next four out: Nebraska, Missouri State, Cleveland State, Washington State

Updating the bracket

Well, it was an insane weekend in college hoops, and 4 bids were punched, bubbles were popped, and celebrations were had. Most importantly, we are now closer to the fateful Sunday, and here is my updated bracket:

1 seeds: OSU, Kansas, Duke Pitt
2 seeds: Purdue, SDST, UNC, Notre Dame
3 seeds: Syracuase, Texas, BYU, Louisville
4 seeds: St Johns, Florida, Wisconsin, Uconn
5 seeds: Vandy, UK, Gtown, Arizona
6 seeds: UNLV, Texas A&M, Temple, West Virginia
7 seeds: 'Nova, K State, Xavier, Cincy
8 seeds: George Mason, Florida St., Old Dominion, UCLA
9 seeds: Illinois, Mizzou, Utah State, Gonzaga
10 seeds: Michigan St., Marquette, Georgia, Tennessee
11 seeds: *'Bama, *St. Mary's, Richmond, Boston College, Michigan
12 seeds: UAB, Harvard, *Va. Tech, *Butler, VCU
13 seeds: Belmont, College of Charleston, Oakland, UW-Milwaukee
14 seeds: Vermont, Kent State, Long Island, Morehead State
15 seeds: Bucknell, FAU, Long Beach, McNeese State
16 seeds: *Bethune-Cookman, *UNC-Ashville, Texas Southern, Northern Colorado, *Indiana State, *St. Peters

*= Play-in game

Saturday Update- Conference tournaments

Well, today was an enormous day in the NCAA, and the last day with a true full slate of games this year. Along with the huge games, such as Duke-UNC there were a number of meaningful conference tournament games as well. A rundown of some of the notable ones:

Atlantic Sun
In the A-Sun championship game, the 1 seed Belmont Bruins clobbered the 6 seed North Florida Ospreys 87-46. Belmont was a fringe bubble team going in, so they will most likely be one of the higher-seeded auto bids. Expect them to be a 13 or 14 seed, depending on how deep the bubble goes.

Big South
In the first conference championship game of the season, the 3rd seeded UNC-Ashville team beat 1 seed Coastal Carolina by 13. Coastal Carolina came into the game on a bit of a cold streak, and had a lot of program turmoil, while UNC-Ashville was very hot. UNC-Ashville will most likely be a 15 or 16 seed, possibly in one of the play-in games.

Colonial
As of 8:42 PM EST, as I write this, the 1,2,and 4 seeds have all advanced to the semis. The lone surprise of this tourney has been 11 seed William and Mary upsetting 6th seeded James Madison in the 1st round. Drexel, the 5 seed, most likely dashed its bubble hopes with a loss to 4 VCU. 1 and 2 seeds George Mason and Old Dominion are both expected to garner tournament bids.

Horizon
In the first semifinal game, Butler beat fellow bubble squad Cleveland State, while the 1 vs. 4 matchup of UW-Milwaukee and Valpo is in the early stages. Butler will be the favorite to win the championship game.

Missouri Valley
The Missouri State Sycamores and Wichita State Shockers will meet tomorrow for the MVC championship. Missouri State is a bubble team, and a win but make them a very strong automatic qualifier. The MVC tournament always provides a lot of excitement, and this one has been no exception.

Ohio Valley Conference
The championship game is currently going of, with the unfortunately-named Morehead State team battles 4 seed Tennessee Tech. Top state Murray State was ousted, and will not get a chance to repeat an upset like last year's 13/4 win. (Which, by the way, I called.)

More to come later tonight, assuming I don't get a heart attack watching Duke-UNC.

Bubble Watching, Part 1

As is the case during most Wednesday nights late in the season, there are usually some huge Wednesday games, and last night was no exception. Here are the winners and losers from last night:

Winners
Cincinnati
With a crucial win at Marquette, the Bearcats appear to have punched a ticket to the Big Dance.
New Mexico
The Lobos absolutely crushed the Jimmers, and gave themselves a much needed big win.

Losers
Clemson
The Tigers had a chance for a huge win at Duke, but fell by 11. They will probably need to win a few games in the ACC tournament to have a shot.
Marquette
The Golden Eagles are still likely to make the tourney, but a loss at fellow bubble team Cincy puts them back closer to the center of the pack.

Midday update 3/2

Unfortunately for all of us bracket geeks, last night was relatively lame in terms of shocking upsets. Most of the ranked teams one, and there were very few conference tournament upsets. The Horizon and Big South tournaments both began last night, and the only upset of any kind in either one was 7 seed High Point beating the 2 seed Liberty in the Big South. Other than that, all of the favorites won, and the bubble remains pretty much the same size this morning.

Tonight's slate includes the first round of the ASUN, OVC, and Patriot tournaments. Only Belmont out of the ASUN has an shot at all to sneak in with an at-large bid, but they would have to reach the ASUN finals and get a lot of help.

The action tonight will again be in the major conferences, as there are some huge games for bubble teams. More to come later in the day.

Conference tournaments 3/1/11

Now that conference tournaments have finally started, expect a steady stream of posts over the next 13 days. Tonight being the first night of tournaments, there is a relatively weak slate of games, but certainly enough to whet one's appetite. It also helps that there are several big games between ranked teams or featuring bubble teams tonight.

Anyways, on to the tournaments.

Big South
The big south is a weak conference that has produced little in terms of recent at large teams/ Big Dance wins. This year, the situation is no different. 1 seed Coastal Carolina has an impressive 26-4 record, but faces an NCAA investigation, losing streak, and program turmoil. Their at-large hopes are null, as they feature an RPI of 98 and very poor 302 SOS. 2 seed Liberty and 3 seed UNC-Ashville also have outside shots at winning the tournament, but neither have anything impressive on their résumés. The Big South also has VMI, the perennially highest-scoring team in D1 hoops, and previous champion and tournament shocker Winthrop.

First round schedule:
1Coastal Carolina-8Gardner Webb
2Liberty-7High Point
3UNC-Ashville-6Charleston Southern
4VMI-5Winthrop

Horizon
Dominated by the prominence of the Butler Bulldogs over the last couple of years, the conference was represented extremely well when the Bulldogs upset its way to the championship game last year, losing by 2 when their last-second 3 hit the rim. This year, Butler, Cleveland State, and UW-Milwaukee all tied for first, with Butler and UW-Milwaukee winning the tiebreakers for the double bye. Of the 3, Cleveland State, led by the ridiculous Norris Cole, and Butler both have at-large hopes. In this way, getting the double bye might actually hurt Butler, since it has fewer chances to add wins. Anyways, tonight's schedule is as follows:

3Cleveland St.-10Ill.-Chicago
4Valpo-9Youngstown St.
5Detroit-8Loyola Ill
6.Wright St.-7Green Bay

Get those brackets ready!

Introduction

Hello, everyone! My name is Andrew Wick, and I am an amateur bracketologist. As a senior project, I have decided to study the Big Dance, and as part of my project I will be using key factors (e.g. RPI, SOS, W-L record, RPI Top 50/100 wins, etc.) to try to predict the 2011 bracket. Enjoy!