Monday, April 18, 2011

The effect of parody on college basketball

As I wrote about earlier, college basketball's decision to make all players wanted to play in the NBA spend a year in college has truly created a lot of parody in the game. However, many might be skeptical of this and think of this as a short term trend. To prove my point, take a look at the final four seeds of the last 33 tournaments:
2011 3, 4, 8, 11 UConn, Kentucky, Butler, VCU
2010 1, 2, 5, 5 Duke, West Virginia, Butler, Michigan State
2009 1, 1, 2, 3 North Carolina, Connecticut, Michigan State, Villanova
2008 1, 1, 1, 1 Kansas, Memphis, North Carolina, UCLA
2007 1, 1, 2, 2 Florida, Ohio State, Georgetown, UCLA
2006 2, 3, 4, 11 UCLA, Florida, LSU, George Mason
2005 1, 1, 4, 5 North Carolina, Illinois, Louisville, Michigan State
2004 1, 2, 2, 3 Duke, Connecticut, Oklahoma State, Georgia Tech
2003 1, 2, 3, 3 Texas, Kansas, Marquette, Syracuse
2002 1, 1, 2, 5 Maryland, Kansas, Oklahoma, Indiana
2001 1, 1, 2, 3 Duke, Michigan State, Arizona, Maryland
2000 1, 5, 8, 8 Michigan State, Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin
1999 1, 1, 1, 4 Connecticut, Duke, Michigan State, Ohio State
1998 1, 2, 3, 3 North Carolina, Kentucky, Stanford, Utah
1997 1, 1, 1, 4 Kentucky, Minnesota, North Carolina, Arizona
1996 1, 1, 4, 5 Kentucky, Massachusetts, Syracuse, Mississippi State
1995 1, 2, 2, 4 UCLA, Arkansas, North Carolina, Oklahoma State
1994 1, 2, 2, 3 Arkansas, Arizona, Duke, Florida
1993 1, 1, 1, 2 North Carolina, Kentucky, Michigan, Kansas
1992 1, 2, 4, 6 Duke, Indiana, Cincinnati, Michigan
1991 1, 1, 2, 3 UNLV, North Carolin, Duke, Kansas
1990 1, 3, 4, 4 UNLV, Duke, Georgia Tech, Arkansas
1989 1, 2, 3, 3 Illinois, Duke, Seton Hall, Michigan
1988 1, 1, 2, 6 Arizona, Oklahoma, Duke, Kansas
1987 1, 1, 2, 6 UNLV, Indiana, Syracuse, Providence
1986 1, 1, 2, 11 Duke, Kansas, Louisville, LSU
1985 1, 1, 2, 8 St. John's, Georgetown, Memphis, Villanova
1984 1, 1, 2, 7 Kentucky, Georgetown, Houston, Virginia
1983 1, 1, 4, 6 Houston, Louisville, Georgia, N.C. State
1982 1, 1, 3, 6 North Carolina, Georgetown, Louisville, Houston
1981 1, 1, 2, 3 Virginia, LSU, North Carolina, Indiana
1980 2, 5, 6, 8 Louisville, Iowa, Purdue, UCLA
1979 1, 2, 2, 9 Indiana State, Michigan State, DePaul, Pennsylvania

As you can see, the 2011 tournament especially was one for the record books, as there was never been a tournament even closely as upset-prone as this past one. Consider that in the 22-year span from 1981 until 2002, there was an average of 2 #1 seeds in the final four each tournament. However, in the 9 tournaments since then the average has been near 1, which is unprecedented in tournament history. To some basketball outsiders, this might not seem like a big deal, but it is actually an extremely important statistic that reflects a growing trend of parody.

In addition, parody leads the way for mid-major schools to pull shockng upsets much more often. Consider Butler, who has been to the championship game twice in a row, even though the odds on that happening were one in millions. In addition, 11 seed VCU was in the final four this year, after almost missing the tournament. This rise of mid-major upsets also proves that the parody is increasing, and makes the gap between seeds smaller and smaller each year.

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